Please note that the NFFC ADP columns below are for seasonal players who love the classic, managerial aspect of fantasy football, while the RTSports ADP columns are geared toward those getting into the emerging best-ball format.
Let’s start talking some interesting early trends in the ADP of several noteworthy fantasy assets!
MORE FANTASY ALARM: 2018 Draft Kit
Rookie RBs vary in season-long, best-ball ADPs
Rookie RBs in potentially favorable spots often come at steep prices in fantasy drafts, which is why the ADPs for rookies are almost always higher in seasonal formats compared to best-ball setups. Selecting a rookie in the third round of a best-ball draft to be your RB1 or RB2 is more than a little risky, but drafting a rookie in the third round of your season-long draft and hoping his upside wins out is a little more doable.
We know the Seahawks want to run, so getting their potential bell cow seems smart. But is it Chris Carson or rookie Rashaad Penny? In seasonal formats, Penny is going to cost you a third- or fourth-round pick, but in best-ball formats, his ADP is closer to the fifth round. Conversely, Tampa’s Ronald Jones is coming off the board four picks earlier in seasonal formats. Here’s a glance at the ADPs of more notable rookie running backs:
The trend of rookie RBs commonly having higher ADPs in season-long league doesn’t always hold true, but it certainly makes sense. Watching the ADP for these rookies will be fascinating, as they are sure to rise and fall based on preseason results
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Mock Draft ADP: Boom-or-bust WRs all over the board
In best-ball drafts, taking a chance on more boom-or-bust receivers makes sense. Trusting those players in seasonal formats can be referred to as “dancing with the devil” because they typically are more inconsistent. For every 20-burger they put up, they have just as many two-point duds. Often, deep-threat, big-play wide receivers will cost higher draft capital in best-ball formats compared to season-long setups.
We see this with San Francisco’s Marquise Goodwin. His ADP in the best-ball formats over at RTSports is seven picks earlier than in NFFC formats. Goodwin’s ADP will likely continue to rise because of positive reports from camp about the Jimmy Garoppolo-to-Goodwin connection. If you extrapolated Goodwin’s performance with Garoppolo last year over a full season, he would total 88 receptions and 1,232 yards. Goodwin can break off the big one at any point, which is what makes him so appealing in all formats.
Similarly, Houston’s Will Fuller is going off the board 15 picks – over two rounds – earlier in best-ball formats compared to season-long setups. When Deshaun Watson was under center last year, Fuller was a monster, racking up fantasy points in bunches. In four games with Watson, Fuller caught seven TDs. At last season’s pace with a full year of Watson, Fuller would have amassed 52 receptions for 1,116 yards and a whopping 28 touchdowns. Obviously he won’t get into the end zone that many times, but he still has tremendous upside. Fuller bulked up this offseason, and reports from Texans camp are that his routes are incredibly crisp and he’s giving the corners fits. Fuller’s ADP will likely continue to rise as a Watson-led offense could be incredibly profitable in fantasy football this season. It’s DeAndre Hopkins and Fuller in that offense, and everyone else is a distant third and beyond.
MORE: Fantasy Alarm’s 2018 Ultimate Cheat Sheet
LeSean McCoy Suspension: Uncertainty affecting mock draft ADP
About a month ago, McCoy seemed primed to be a late-first or early-second-round pick. However, when news broke of his alleged involvement in a domestic violence incident, substance abuse, and animal cruelty, many fantasy owners were scared to draft him. He isn’t out of the woods yet, as investigations continue. Given the severity of the accusations, he could face a lengthy suspension, leaving fantasy owners without their RB1 or RB2 for an unspecified amount of time. Since the start of June, his ADP has fallen nearly six picks, or over half of a round in 12-team formats. At his current ADP, McCoy will cost you a third-round pick.
The near plummeting of McCoy’s stock completely explains the surge from teammate Chris Ivory. Over at RTSports, Ivory’s ADP in June was 232, but it’s now 206.48. The McCoy news boosted Ivory’s appeal in best-ball formats because if McCoy were to miss time, Ivory is a steal and in line for heavy usage. In seasonal formats, Ivory remains just a handcuff, but in best ball, Ivory could be much more valuable at his current price. If he doesn’t pan out in best ball, so be it, but in seasonal formats where each roster spot is crucial, using that spot on a handcuff may not be as appealing as another wide receiver in line for consistent targets.
If your league has a late draft, there will certainly be more clarity on this situation, but drafting McCoy at this point seems like the fantasy version of Russian roulette. At any given moment, something new could drop, potentially derailing McCoy’s 2018 fantasy value.
MORE: SN’s 2018 Cheat Sheet
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2018 Fantasy Football Mock Draft ADP Report
NFFC ADP for season-long leagues; RTSports ADP for best-ball leagues