The long drive by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania toward independence was outstripped last week by the speed of events in Russia itself. Lithuania’s announcement that it would prosecute those who ordered the Soviet attack on Vilnius’s television facilities came only after crack troops, occupying the TV tower since the bloody Jan. 13 withdrew voluntarily. Lithuania and Latvia both outlawed the Communist Party in their republics, and Riga even arrested the Latvian Communist leader-but a day after the Russians had already suspended activities of the Communist Party in Moscow. And perhaps emboldened by the Muscovite crowds that toppled statuary at KGB headquarters, Estonian officials on Thursday used a crane to lift Lenin from his pedestal at Toompea Castle, the government seat, to polite applause from a moderate-size crowd. Lowered into a dump truck, the statue was carted off to an Estonian museum commemorating Stalin’s crimes against humanity.

Until now, only Lithuania dared such open provocation. Its parliament had actually declared its independence, but the other two republics pursued a less confrontational approach. Together the three formed a shadow “economic frontier,” preventing some exports to other parts of the union and forging economic and social ties with Western countries, particularly in Scandinavia. Local police forces became more assertive-in effect functioning as quasinational militias–but avoided clashes with Soviet troops. The Baltic strategy was not to strengthen the hand of conservatives opposed to Mikhail Gorbachev, while still promoting a sense of national autonomy. The attempted coup changed that; both Estonia and Latvia formally declared independence as the coup unfolded.

Having done so, they were hardly going to rescind their independence when the coup failed. (Latvia’s move last Wednesday may have been inspired by recognition that the coup was faltering.) “The Balts see this as a historic opportunity. They’d be fools not to take it,” said an American diplomat who follows Baltic affairs. “The conservatives have been routed, and they were the main obstacle to independence.”

Still, many Baltic officials are still talking about a timetable for full political independence that is six months to two years long. This week’s declarations did not provide any concrete steps, such as ousting Soviet garrisons or re-establishing national frontiers. Most Baltic leaders readily acknowledge that even when independent, they will continue to have a Soviet security presence, as well as a great deal of economic interdependence with their larger neighbor. Estonia has printed up its own currency, but refrained from issuing it-at least partly out of fear that the Soviets might then demand hard currency for oil. These are thorny issues. “I would say it would take at least a year,” said Sergei Chernov, an aide to the Estonian prime minister.

Western and Scandinavian diplomats, on the other hand, were saying last week that Baltic independence now looks imminent. German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher said his country “will naturally not hesitate” to recognize Baltic sovereignty following negotiations to that end. Belgium was actively lobbying other European Community members to restore diplomatic relations with the republics now. President Bush also called for a speeded-up schedule. In recognizing an independent Estonia, Yeltsin may have been showing his gratitude for the quick condemnation the Baltics gave to the coup, at a time when some officials of other Soviet republics waffled on the action against Gorbachev. He had earlier expressed sympathy with Baltic aspirations, and gone so far as to sign an accord that called Lithuania a “sovereign” state. Estonian Prime Minister Edgar Savisaar goes to Moscow on Aug. 26, expecting to get written recognition of independence from the Russian leader, according to Chernov.

Many Balts seem to have difficulty believing in their good fortune after half a century of Soviet domination and exploitation, beginning shortly after the notorious Molotov-Ribbentrop pact of 1939. “We’re so flabbergasted we haven’t had time to think about it,” said Myra Geiges, a clerical worker in Tallinn. Alo Merilo, a biology student at an Estonian university, grew up hearing his mother express hope that she would see independence again in her lifetime–a wish that seemed more sentimental than practical. “Five years ago, we would never have believed in it,” Merilo said. “Only a week ago, I would have said it would take years at least. Now, I think it will be weeks, and if you come back later and ask me, maybe it’ll only be hours.” Barring a change in Yeltsin’s position, that time will probably come sooner rather than later.