It was a tie in the delegate race, with the Obama camp claiming a slim 14-delegate lead and Team Clinton citing an even smaller spread of five or six.
It was a tie in the popular vote at 7.3 million ballots apiece.
And it was a tie in the state-by-state sweepstakes: while Obama took more golds (14 to Clinton’s eight), the former First Lady captured New York, New Jersey, California, Arizona and Massachusetts–nearly all the big battlegrounds.
As Ron Brownstein put it, “The two candidates emerged from the unprecedented test still running virtually step for step overall–and still dividing the party along the same lines of gender, education, income, age and race that have shaped their duel through the first contests.” “Too close to call” is right.
But don’t expect yesterday’s deadlock to continue for the rest of the month. Prior to Super Tuesday, Clinton aides were already admitting in private that the rest of February would be rough. Now they’re practically shouting it from the rooftops. “The period between today and the time when we get to the larger states clearly favor Obama,” said Clinton strategist Mark Penn this morning. “More so than us.”
Two reasons why the Clintonistas are lowering expectations–and girding for a few wintry weeks.
- The Calendar: Seven of the eight nominating contests remaining in February seem tailored to Obama’s strengths.
With 68 delegates, Washington is this Saturday’s biggest prize–and every early indicator points to an Obama win. The delegate-rich western half of the state is dense with highly educated white liberals–a demographic that tends to favor Obama, who won voters with a four-year or post-graduate degree in 11 of the 16 Super Tuesday states and swept among people who earn more than $100,000 a year. Many of these supporters may prove to be “former Deaniacs” –“a serious constituency here,” says political reporter Eli Sanders of Seattle’s The Stranger, who adds that “Deaniacs and the Dean-style momentum in Washington are both very tangibly behind Obama.” What’s more, Obama is crushing Clinton in the local money wars–$1.7 million for him vs. just under $1 million for her, with Obama cashing checks from a considerably larger base of donors. Both of the state’s major newspapers have endorsed Obama, and he leads in the latest poll of likely caucusgoers by 22 points.
Nebraska also votes on Saturday. Though Obama boasts the backing of Sen. Ben Nelson, he doesn’t immediately seem as strong in the Cornhusker State as he is in Washington–until you consider the fact that both Washington and Nebraska are caucus states. So far, eight states have conducted caucuses, and seven of them–Iowa, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota–have chosen Obama, often by margins of 20, 30 or 50 points; five were fellow Plains States. If Obama can win by 50 in Kansas, the thinking goes, he should do well in neighboring Nebraska. Either way, caucuses favor his fervent, well-organized followers and aggressive field operation. That alone should propel the senator to victory–perhaps even in Maine, the day’s third and final caucus state which caucuses on Sunday the 10th (although Clinton’s chances are better there).
Also on Saturday: the Louisiana primary. In South Carolina, Obama racked up a 28-point margin largely on the strength of his support among black voters, and he repeated the performance yesterday in Georgia and Alabama, where African-Americans chose him six-to-one over Clinton. Louisiana is 32 percent black–meaning that Obama arrives as the prohibitive favorite. Expect another overwhelming win.
Next comes the Potomac Primary–Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia–on Tuesday, Feb. 12. Team Obama is banking on the capital’s massive black population to win over Washington, and a convenient blend of blacks and upscale whites in Maryland and Virginia to swing the rest Chesapeake Bay area for its candidate; the organizational muscle of Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine should help. Clinton isn’t conceding; according to the Washington Post, she’s focusing “heavily on fast-growing outer suburbs such as Prince William and Loudoun counties in Northern Virginia and the state’s economically struggling rural southwest, where unemployment is high among white working-class voters.” But right now the oddsmakers says that Obama has a strong chance to win eight straight contests by the time the polls close in his home state of Hawaii on Feb. 19.
The Clinton camp admits that it has little chance to slow Obama’s momentum before the 19th, and points to Wisconsin, also voting that day, as a potential bulwark. The Badger State’s predominantly downscale, overwhelmingly white electorate might boost the New York senator. Then again, after three weeks of glowing coverage, Obama could very well ride the large student population to victory. It’s too early to say. Clinton’s first real chance to regain momentum is March 4, when Ohio and Texas go to the polls. “In both states, the upscale white voters who have bolstered Obama are scarce,” writes Brownstein. “In Texas, the large Latino population, which cast one-quarter of the vote in the 2004 primary, will compound Obama’s challenge.” True enough. Right now, he lags badly in the polls. But if February unfolds as expected, he’s likely to show up a month from now in much better shape.
- The Cash: As Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen of the Politico write, “Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward.” In January alone, Obama raked in more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than half that sum. To make matters worse, it was reported this morning that Clinton recently loaned her campaign $5 million–from her own pocket. The problem for Clinton is that braking Obama’s momentum while preparing for Texas and Ohio is impossible without some serious cashflow, but going a month without a win doesn’t exactly do wonders for your fundraising. Meaning the loan was necessary–and might spell trouble ahead. Telethon, anyone?
