The Yugoslav Army called the shoot-down “a tragic error,” purportedly caused when two EC helicopters entered Yugoslav airspace from Hungary without first filing flight plans. Army officers said the helicopters were mistaken for Croatian gunrunners. But they couldn’t explain why no one ordered a visual inspection of the clearly marked aircraft or issued a radio warning.
Few believed the Army version, and an EC spokesman denied it. The Army said it had arrested five officers in the incident but did not name them. Diplomats said the culprits could have come from either of the two factions in the Yugoslav officer corps, now divided between pro-Serbs and Tito-style federalists who prefer civil war to secession by Croatia. The shoot-down prompted the few remaining moderate generals to resign, leaving hard-line Serbian officers to tighten their grip over the Yugoslav Army-and making more armed conflict likely.
Threats to the fragile peace are also coming from outside the military. One principal troublemaker: Milan Babic, leader of the Serbian region of Krajina inside Croatia. Krajina declared independence last month and has said it will not allow U.N. peacekeepers on its soil. Hardline Serbian minorities in other republics also seem intent on prolonging the strife. On Thursday the 1.3 million Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina announced their own independent nation. That move increased chances of fighting in Bosnia, a region divided among Muslims, Roman Catholic Croats and Orthodox Serbs. Arriving in Belgrade for more talks, European peace mediator Lord Carrington sounded optimistic: “The cease-fire is holding,” he says. Yet whatever the mediators arrange, the men who control the guns in what was once Yugoslavia may shoot it down.
