That largely depends on one thing–whether she can persuade the country’s other major parties to swing behind her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P. Yudhoyono, whom early returns show taking 34 percent of the vote, has a fresh-faced appeal as an outsider to presidential politics. Voters have responded to that image as much as to his calls for cleaner, more efficient government. But that also means he doesn’t have much of a party machine behind him. His Democrat Party was created only late last year, holds a mere 57 of the 550 seats in Parliament and has only one mission–to get him elected. He appears to have slumped in the final days of campaigning as undecided voters returned to the Megawati fold. “Voters probably stuck with the devil they knew,” says Wanandi. For SBY to oust Megawati in a runoff, he’ll need a much more organized get-out-the-vote drive, particularly in the countryside, where the Golkar machine developed by former dictator Suharto remains strong. To fend off the challenge, Megawati will first of all need to deny Yudhoyono that kind of support.
Both sides are thus zeroing in on Golkar, whose candidate, former military chief and indicted war-crimes suspect General Wiranto, trails Megawati in the early returns 22 to 26 percent. The party has millions of members and piles of cash; while SBY has had great success enticing voters to cross party lines, he’ll need a much more sizable war chest to take on the PDI-P head-to-head. In return, Golkar Chairman Akbar Tanjung, the country’s current Parliament speaker, is expected to demand key cabinet posts for loyalists. Sources tell NEWSWEEK that both Yudhoyono and Megawati are already holding talks with Tanjung, who, having failed to win the Golkar nomination for president, has positioned himself as kingmaker.
Many observers think Megawati may have planned for such an eventuality; she’s kept lines of communication open to Tanjung and other Golkar leaders for months. Indeed, Golkar and the PDI-P have worked together to dominate Parliament for the past five years. They successfully conspired to impeach President Abdurrahman Wahid for alleged corruption and incompetence in 2001, clearing the way for the then Vice President Megawati to succeed him. But opinion is divided about whether she or SBY would better serve Golkar’s interests. Megawati can offer Golkar prized cabinet seats and the assurance of five more years of political dominance. SBY, on the other hand, can probably offer even more political posts, since he will need to form a coalition in Parliament if elected.
The fact that Yudhoyono is the front runner–an estimated 31 percent of Golkar supporters voted for him last week–also works to his advantage. “The undercurrent within Golkar is [for] Yudhoyono,” says Umar Juoro, an economic adviser to Golkar. “They don’t want to back a losing ticket.” Still, SBY can’t afford to count on a single party, even one as powerful as Golkar. He’s also likely to make a play for votes from Wahid’s National Awakening Party, or PKB, which supported Wiranto for president. The PKB won the third most votes in April’s parliamentary elections and is very popular in East Java, the country’s largest voting province. Given Megawati’s role in Wahid’s impeachment three years ago, SBY is probably banking on his support. And seeing how the Islamic parties have castigated Megawati for her failure to curb corruption, they may also be likely to throw their support to Yudhoyono.
Of course, there’s still the question of how much power the major parties really wield in Indonesia after six years of corruption, stagnation and incompetent leadership. Given that the vote for president is now direct, charisma is playing a much larger role than in any previous election. SBY, with his boyish good looks and reputation as a no-nonsense reformer, wins that battle hands down. The dour Megawati, by contrast, is seen by many as arrogant and oblivious to the plight of tens of millions of poor Indonesians. Where her administration has had some success–in tamping down religious violence in the Moluccas, for instance–much of the credit has gone to SBY, who spoke out on such issues as her coordinating minister for Politics and Security. “Megawati represents the corrupt political elite that has ruled this country for 50 years,” says a Western diplomat. “Yudhoyono is something new, someone who says he will shake things up.”
Megawati is expected to take a breather in the coming weeks, but she can’t rest for too long. Uncomfortable with speaking to reporters or the public, she was foundering on the campaign trail until she began a series of successful stump speeches across the country in the last few weeks. Some analysts expect her campaign to start putting students and human-rights activists into the streets later this summer to highlight the fact that Yudhoyono is a former general–something that may not sit well with voters who remember the heavy hand of the Suharto regime. Unlike Wiranto, who was indicted last year by a United Nations-backed war-crimes tribunal in East Timor, Yudhoyono has never been implicated in human-rights abuses. But in 1996 he was chief of staff of the Jakarta military command when military-backed mobs attacked the headquarters of Megawati’s party, killing five people and leaving at least 23 others missing.
Yudhoyono’s camp professes not to be worried and frames the debate as a stark choice between an energetic new leader and a speechless, status quo president unresponsive to her country’s problems. “Are we going to choose a person who we already know couldn’t make it, or are we going to try a new person?” says political analyst Salim Said. “That is the question for Indonesia.” If Indonesians see it that way, then Megawati may be crying in September, too.
