So what next? Obviously, wait. How long? Do the math. Next week U.N. inspectors will almost surely be given extra time. Washington insiders are already talking a month–and possibly two. Depending on what the inspectors find, there’s then the prospect of a U.N. debate over a second resolution. The first took two months. The next probably won’t be easier. Add it all up, and the date for military action is late March, at the earliest, and could be June. Summer, in other words, in Iraq.
The conventional wisdom suggests that’s beyond the Pentagon’s window of opportunity. In fact, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld seems to be working on that schedule already. In striking contrast to the headlines, the actual U.S. buildup in the gulf has been less than rapid. So far, only one Army division (of three-plus) is on the move. Fewer than half the Marines to be deployed have begun to sail. Air power also lags. Fuel is being stockpiled–233 million gallons shipped since Oct. 1, with millions more supplied locally–but not materiel. Of the Pentagon’s “surge fleet” of 19 giant sealift ships, many as big as aircraft carriers and capable of carrying dozens of tanks and other heavy equipment, only three have sailed out. Two more are ready to go; four more will begin loading this week. An additional eight of these leviathans are anchored, fully loaded, off Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. But they haven’t budged from their moorings.
What’s going on? Tactics, in a word. For now, the Bush administration is playing mind games with Saddam–or, as one insider puts it, a “force-on-mind exercise.” Washington beats the war drums in hopes the Iraqi dictator will cave. Meanwhile preparations for war go on, slowly and deliberately, so as to maximize pressure. If that takes us into an Iraqi summer, so what?
Top U.S. officials say it would be a mistake to rule out a summer conflict. “Remember, it’s summer for them, too,” says one. Sure, it’s hot. But U.S. troops fight mainly at night–a capability the Iraqis lack. Moreover, biochem weapons are far less effective in the heat of summer. As for those reports that biowarfare suits are too heavy for heat? Overstated. Many units (such as tank crews) wouldn’t even be wearing them, since the units are too mobile to be easily targeted by Iraqi artillery. Some military planners even prefer the summer, since the rivers and desert wadis that flood in winter would be less of an obstacle to U.S. tanks. Don’t look now, but that may be the real window.
